Beech Tree News Network

After correctly picking the Browns to win on Thursday night, I'm 1 to the good going into Sunday's slate of NFL games. With a 10-5 finish last week my season record in my attempt to correctly pick 70% of NFL games has improved to 39-24 with a quarter of the season in the books.

Before I get to my picks, here are a few things the first quarter of the season has taught us.

-The New England dynasty is starting on its downhill slide. Tom Brady still finds ways to win games, but the juggernaut that used to punish opponents is history. Brady and Bill Belichick miss Wes Welker, and it's clear the Tom Brady that could make any receiver look good is gone.

-Peyton Manning isn't in his physical prime, but his mental prowess and absolute mastery of reading defenses more than makes up for it. Through the first month of the season Manning has 16 touchdown passes, no interceptions, and almost 1,500 yards passing. He's on pace to have his best NFL season, and is the early favorite for MVP. unlike the Manning of years past he's not gunning deep passes and constantly going over the top of the defense. The majority of his completions have been short outs, and middle hits under the defense, showing that Manning is altering his game to make the most of his accuracy as his arm strength begins to fade a bit.

-It's starting to look like all Andy Reid needed in Philly was a few more football players, and a few less high-dollar bad attitudes. Reid got fired as the Eagles head coach for 'under-performing.' He took over the Kansas City Chiefs, a team nobody thought was ready to contend, but he has them 4-0 after the first month. He has fewer stars in KC than he did in Philly, but Reid has a squad full of guys that play hard and have responded to their new coach. It looks like Reid might have finally found a team and a town where he's a good fit, and things should only improve for KC in coming seasons. The days of the AFC playoff road going through Kansas City might be about to return.

-Geno Smith isn't having the greatest rookie season ever for a quarterback, but he has upside. Smith got pushed into the Jets' starting spot when Mark Sanchez got hurt, and he's been surprisingly not awful. He makes plenty of bad rookie decisions, and he's still adjusting to the speed of the NFL, but he plays hard and keeps the Jets in games. Possibly more important for the Jets' future success is the fact the team has rallied around Smith. Smith has won over the fans too, and a few more wins could save Rex Ryan's job for at least another season.

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Ok, I'll wrap up with this week's NFL picks.

One trap I have to keep myself from falling into is picking games for this season with past seasons in mind. A couple of my picks seem like upsets, and they would have been a year ago, but the NFL is having a power shift. A perfect example is New England (4-0) at Cincinnati (2-2). When you see this game on the schedule your brain screams at you to pick the Patriots, but that's a past performance pick. Simply put, the Bengals are probably just a little better than New England right now, plus the teams are going in different directions. Cincy is a team on the rise and the Pats are slipping. I'm picking the Bengals to win behind a strong day from quarterback Andy Dalton.

Similarly you would think that the Ravens could handle the Dolphins fairly easily. They would have last season, but Ray Lewis and Ed Reid are retired, and the Ravens are going to struggle to make the playoffs after winning it all last season. I think the game will be close, but playing at home I give the Dolphins the edge.

My last trap game is the Saints heading to Chicago to take on the Bears. Easy win for the 4-0 Saints, right? As ESPN college football guru Lee Corso might say, not so fast my friends. The Saints might become the NFC's best team by January, but the Bears could be in that conversation too. Playing at home with a punishing running game I think the Bears have a slight edge and should hand New Orleans their first loss.

Joining the Browns, Bengals, Bears, and Dolphins on my winners list this week are; Chiefs, Packers, Colts, Rams, Giants, Cardinals, Broncos, 49ers, Chargers, and Jets.

And in case you haven't noticed, there are some real stinker matchups this week. As far as entertainment goes the Titans hosting the Chiefs could be the game of the week.

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