Beech Tree News Network

Another NFL season is upon us. For myself and the other hundreds of millions of fans of professional football the Thursday following Labor Day has become as big a holiday as Thanksgiving and Christmas. I actually don't start looking forward to Christmas on December 26th, but I do start counting the days to next season's kickoff on the morning after the Super Bowl.

A few years ago I endeavored to pick every regular season NFL game. I don't like to brag, but I think I did pretty well. My winning percentage was .667 which measured up favorably against the talking head TV experts. My win-loss record was actually several points higher than the guys on INSIDE THE NFL, and was just slightly lower than ESPN's Chris Berman.

I mention this because I've been asked by several readers to handicap the season again. It's actually been a request I've heard quite a bit since my first attempt to handicap the entire season, but I've resisted until now. I've also been asked by several folks to tell what I look for when picking games.

When I look at games on paper I have just a handful of factors that weigh in to my picks. NFL football is all about flashy running backs, crushing defensive hits, and gunslinging quarterbacks when you watch on TV, but for the most part what TV coverage concentrates on isn't really what wins or loses the games. Instead of falling into the TV trap successful football handicappers look elsewhere to decide who will win or lose on any given Sunday.

The first thing I look at is the combo of head coach and quarterback. I look at them together because the success of one is usually held in the hands of the other. It's not enough to have Tom Brady, you need Bill Billichek to make Brady a winner, and vice versa. Need proof of this? Just think back to a few seasons ago when Brady missed all but 9 minutes of the regular season. Billichek and the Patriots were still decent, but they were also rans in the chase to be Super Bowl champions. I think it’s important to note that I’m not saying you have to have a top five coach and qb to win games. You just need a good coach and a good qb, but you have to have them on the same page.
Next, I look at who is the home team. Home field advantage is worth more in the NFL than in any other sport. Even the very best NFL teams don't like to go on the road, especially late in the season. Middle of the road teams on the road are often downright tough at home, which can translate to a few extra points on the scoreboard. If you don't believe it, make note of the number of NLF teams this year that won't win a close game on the road, but won't lose a close game at home. If you need more proof, even the lowly Raiders manage to win some home games every season.

My final criteria to examine deals with the working men of the NFL, the offensive and defensive linemen. General George S. Patton was quick to point out that the most successful generals and conquerors throughout history gained their victories through the blood and toil of unsung, anonymous soldiers. The same could be said of quarterbacks and coaches in the NFL. I don't care who you are, how great you are, or how loaded your team is with flashy superstars. If you can't win the battle on the line you aren't going to win many football games.

As far as line play goes, I will give the advantage to any team that matches up better on the d-line than the offensive line. If the defensive line is even slightly better than the offensive line--or even equally matched--I think the team with the better defensive line will win the majority of the time. Why? The offensive line has to execute plays on the field just as they’re drawn on paper. There's no room for error. However the defensive line can be successful simply by disrupting that plan. By disrupting the most basic element of a play, it generally means the rest of the play won't go as scripted either. How many times have you watched good offensive teams implode in the second half of games? My theory is this usually happens because the defensive line is winning their battle up front, and keeping the well-oiled offensive machine on the other side from getting into the flow of things. Throw in a few defensive line adjustments in the second half, and you’ve got the recipe for an offensive meltdown.

For better or worse thats how I pick games, now it's time to put my money where my mouth is, so to speak, and pick some games. In the interest of brevity I’m just going to post who my winners are for each week, unless I have some compelling comment to make about a matchup.  I’ll keep track of the progress, and I’m shooting for .700 this time, which would put me in the range of some of the best handicappers in the world.
Week 1 Winners; Broncos, Patriots, Steelers, Saints, Buccaneers (I’m picking the Bucs because they play the Jets and the qb position is as weak for the Jets and Sanchez does NOT mesh well with Rex Ryan), Chiefs, Seahawks, Bears, Miami (Cleveland could pull the upset here if they can get some quarterback play), Lions, Colts, Packers (I’m still not convinced SF is ‘back’, and the head coach/qb advantage clearly goes to the Packers), Rams, Cowboys, Redskins, and Texans.

Coming next week; Why Mark Martin is the perfect replacement for Tony Stewart, and more NFL picks.

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