Beech Tree News Network

This year’s Independence Day forecast is slightly higher than 2025

AAA projects 72.2 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home for Independence Day between Saturday, June 27 and Sunday, July 5. This year’s domestic travel forecast surpasses last year’s record of 71.8 million travelers, but the increase is smaller than recent year-over-year gains. The number of travelers driving and flying to their destinations is relatively flat compared to last year, while travel by other modes, including cruises, is the category seeing the biggest increase.

“Holidays like July 4th present the perfect opportunity to travel for many Americans,” said Jim Garrity, director of public affairs, AAA East Central. “The 9-day forecast includes travelers who are vacationing all week and people just getting away for the long holiday weekend. AAA still expects record volumes this year, thanks to the popularity of other modes of travel, especially cruising.”

Independence Day Travelers by Mode of Transportation

By Car: AAA projects 61.4 million people will travel by car over July 4^th week, nearly the same number as last year when 61.3 million travelers took road trips. 85% of Americans traveling for Independence Day are expected to drive to their destinations, despite gas prices reaching four-year highs. Last year, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.15. This year, prices are higher but remain lower than 2022, when the national average was $4.80 on Independence Day. Despite higher gas prices, filling up the tank during a road trip is still cheaper than purchasing flights for many travelers, especially for families with kids.   

For travelers renting cars over July 4^th, AAA car rental partner Hertz expects Thursday, July 2 to be the busiest pickup day. Hertz says Orlando, Denver, Boston, Los Angeles, and New York City are the cities with the highest demand based on advanced bookings. According to AAA booking data, domestic car rentals are 10% more expensive this holiday week compared to last year.

By Air: AAA projects 5.85 million travelers will take domestic flights over July 4^th week, a 0.2% increase over last year. Air travelers make up 8% of the share of holiday travelers. According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their Independence Day trips, roundtrip domestic flights to top destinations like Chicago and Denver are 5% more expensive. Domestic flights overall are averaging about $830 a ticket.

By Other Modes: Travel by other modes is seeing the biggest year-over-year growth compared to car and air travel. AAA projects 4.93 million Americans will take buses, trains, and cruises over Independence Day week, a 5.3% increase from last year. This year is also expected to surpass 2019’s figure of 4.79 million travelers, due in large part to the post-COVID cruising boom. Travelers are drawn to cruise vacations because they know how much the trip will cost upfront, and the ship offers all-inclusive dining, various entertainment options, and multiple destinations.